an excellent slant on the Democratic battle

Stephanie Dunning writes an unconventional take on the Democratic battle that I believe is in the realm of possibility, and is very encouraging.

How Hillary will Help Barack Obama Win the Presidency

Rightnow the prevailing logic in the media is that a protracted Democraticbattle for the nomination will weaken whatever candidate ultimatelywins. But if the contest for the nomination goes until August 25th whenthe Democrats have their national convention, things may not be as badas everyone portends.

There is a funny way, in fact, that a protracted battle might actually help the eventual democratic nominee, who is Barack Obama. Jonathan Alter over at Newsweekhas already shown that no matter what Clinton does in the next 11primary contests, she cannot overtake Obama's lead in pledgeddelegates. The only way for her to win is to claim a majority of theremaining superdelegates, which is unlikely given Obama's lead in thepledged delegate count and the popular vote. Howard Dean has alreadystated that the rules will not be changed--Michigan and Floridadelegates will not be seated at the convention. Furthermore, shouldsuperdelegates go against the will of the people as expressed in thecaucuses and primaries, many predict that there will be such rancor inthe party that Hillary would be guaranteed to lose as mass numbers ofDemocrats defect in disgust. This fact is not lost on the party"elders," Howard Dean, Nancy Pelosi, and Al Gore. Nor is it lost on thesuperdelegates. So--barring a Clinton theft of the nomination (they might try, but I do not think they would prevail. Everyone is predicting that if this happens, there will be a riot in the party.), Obama will be the Democratic nominee.

But this will not be settled before August 25th, because HillaryClinton will go all the way to the convention hoping to win it via thesuperdelegates. She won't. So on August 28th, Obama will be announcedas the nominee.

Thisis actually good news. Though Clinton is running an incredibly negativecampaign against Obama, and many Democrats complain that this iscreating talking points and sound bites for the Republicans, there justwon't be enough time for the Republicans to thwart Obama's momentumbefore the November 4th election day.

Considerthis--the mainstream media will spend at least 2 weeks spinning theresults of the convention and the fallout and/or aftermath of Clinton'sdefeat or the Obama-Clinton ticket. (Obama will undoubtedly bepressured by party insiders to offer Clinton the VP spot; if he does,she is certain to accept. But for strategic reasons, they should delaythat announcement for as long as they can. More on that below. And, inmy view, and I'll write about this in a later post, rather than take onHillary as VP, he should choose Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas.)

That getsus to September 15th. All of the usual attacks against Obama will havebeen exhausted thanks to Clinton by then--the xenophobic smears, theRezko flap, "NAFTA-gate," and covert racism will all be "old hat" byAugust. They would have played those stories as far as they could goand Obama will undoubtedly get better at responding to and deflectingsuch tactics as he has proven again and again his ability to adapt tothe changing political discourse. The Republicans will have no "smokinggun" to pull out in late August/early September when Obama is announcedas the democratic nominee.

Meanwhile,John McCain will be completely off center between now and then as heattempts to attack two different candidates. His opposition to the bothof them will be diffuse and, hence, weak. If you listened to hisvictory speech last night in Ohio, he attempted to criticize bothBarack and Hillary by talking about "divisive politics." That doesn'treally land a blow against one or the other; his energy against hisopposition will be undermined by the battle between Barack and Hillary.Furthermore, the media will continue to obsess over the Democraticnomination since there are primary contests every few weeks. In otherwords, no one will be paying much attention to John McCain or hisrhetoric. He won't be "the story." Barack and Hillary will. That isactually good for Barack, because it means he stays in the publicimagination while McCain fades to the background. Remember the oldadage that there's no such thing as bad publicity? This is somewhat thecase for Barack since it is virtually impossible for him to lose thenomination now.

OnSeptember 1st, John McCain will have to rouse himself from a longsiesta. A debate will be scheduled. How fast could they get that up andrunning? Let's be generous and say they agree to a debate one weeklater. The Obama campaign should delay the announcement of the VP spot,if they can, for about a week or two. They should schedule aPresidential debate, then release the VP announcement. If it isHillary, the media will go bonkers and talk about it endlessly for daysand days. That will shift the focus away from whatever negative attacksthe right launches against Obama. The right is already incredibly worried about an Obama candidacy. Rush Limbaugh has recently argued that ""If Obama is the nominee, we are doomed."(There is widespread belief that Obama lost Texas because of Limbaugh'sappeal to Republicans to vote for Hillary in order to knock Obama outof the race. The same is true in Ohio.) As of right now, the rightisn't really sure how to take Obama down. And Hillary is doing a goodjob of "vetting" Obama before the general. If he survives, and he will,there won't be anything left for the Republicans come the late date ofSeptember.

SoMcCain and Obama will have their first presidential debate say, around,September 10th. The post-debate spin will occupy another news weekwhile Obama and his VP go out on the stump. Speeches and record-turnoutrallies will occupy another week or two. There will be attacks andcounter-attacks. We are now into October. The Republicans will bescrambling to find a new scandal or angle to run against Barack. Let'ssay it takes them a week to produce a few racist and libeloustelevision ads. We are now at October 7th, with less than 4 weeks untilelection day. Obama will respond in kind--another week. And, if Clintonis the VP, she will go dirty against McCain and the lobbyist story willtake on new life and Vicki Isberg will emerge from hiding to tell herstory. McCainmight even make a gaffe or two and give the Obama campaign plenty ofammunition. Things might take a turn for the worse in Iraq and the Demticket will ride hard on that.

Then there will have to be a vicepresidential debate. Another media week. Then, the media will spend itstime preparing for election day and historicizing the "historic"democractic race. Now we are to November 4th. Withonly 1.5 months to take Barack Obama down, the Republicans will behard-pressed to make a cohesive case, to deliver their message withenough power to sway an already well established Barack Obama base. Bythe time the Democratic nomination is decided, voters will knowBarack's agenda and platform almost by heart. That is good for Barackbecause the more voters know him, the more he wins. The more he is ableto discuss his policies, the better he does. Hewould have been fully "vetted" by the Clinton attack machine and therewill very slim pickings for the Republicans come September 1st. Whethershe gets the VP spot or not, Clinton will have to endorse Obama andappease the voters dedicated to her. If she doesn't do this, then hercareer is essentially over--so she will do it. And Obama will win thePresidency.

Sowe need Hillary to stay in the race and make it a protracted battle.Barack Obama cannot be defeated and the longer the media rhetoric isabout the Democratic nomination, the less time the Republicans have toformulate a cohesive strategy against Barack. The longer there are twoDemocrats that could potentially win the nomination, the less ableMcCain and the Republicans will be to come up with "swiftboating"television ads or smear the Democratic candidate. With both of them inthe race, McCain's target is always moving so he'll never be able toland a direct blow. So let Hillary stick around. It will just make it that much easier for Barack to beat McCain in November.

Think this is a crazy theory? No less of a political mudslinging genuis Karl Rove writes "Along Democratic battle doesn't automatically help the Republicans. Infact, it hurts the Republicans in certain ways. Mr. McCain becomes lessinteresting to the media. Stories about him move off page one and growsmaller. TV coverage becomes spotty and short. There are not yet bigand deep and unbridgeable differences between the two Democrats andthere is plenty of time to heal most wounds (except, perhaps among theyoung if Mrs. Clinton were to win). Continuing to build a profile andlay the predicate for the short fall campaign against either Democratbecomes the challenge for Mr. McCain while the Democrats battle it out." Predictions that the party will be torn asunder and that Obama is sure to lose in the fall are just spin and nothing else.